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28 06, 2017

Convergence of Liquidity, debt loads, and taxes =

By | 2017-06-28T15:16:09+00:00 June 28th, 2017|business advisory|0 Comments

We have seen a convergence after years of cheap money, lots of liquidity, and companies pilling on  debt loads that is now converging with a bankruptcy predictor called the “Z Score”.  This is creating a blinking yellow light according to legendary bankruptcy expert Dr. Edward Altman. As these two interlocked factors start to create warnings a third element is drifting into the not so distant future.  An Article in the WSJ June 26, 2017, “The $1.5 Trillion Business Change Flying Under the Radar”.  Congress is kicking around scrapping the interest deduction for businesses.  This would increase the after tax cost of interest an additional 35% and may in fact put many highly leveraged deals in covenant default, to negative cash flows.  The economic disruption would be gigantic. With congress just thinking in those terms should send [...]

25 05, 2017

Spanish Wines

By | 2017-05-25T15:16:31+00:00 May 25th, 2017|wine|0 Comments

In this blog we are going to discuss a few subjects; 2015 / 16 French futures Improving health with wine Spanish wines to buy French Futures Both the 2015 and 2016 vintages are excellent wines.  The 2015 vintage was a classic great vintage and well worth the time to obtain some great French wines to lay down for a few years.  The 2016 futures will come along in the next year.  The growing season was very unusual with lots of rain in the spring, drought in the summer, and just enough rain in the fall to create a great vintage.  The 2016 vintage was different from 2015 and will evolve and taste differently.  The 2016 vintage is definitely worth investing in a few cases to lie down. As a general rule the most expensive of [...]

20 04, 2017

Chilean Wines

By | 2017-04-20T11:44:28+00:00 April 20th, 2017|wine|0 Comments

Normally weather conditions in Chile are perfect for growing grapes, but in 2014 and 2015 like many parts of the west coast Chile had its challenges.  But with careful attention to processing the grapes the vintners continued to bring strong value wines to the market.  The best wines may be coming from the central valley (Maipo and Colchagua Valley)  which saw a very hot dry summer with torrential rain before the 2015 harvest leaving the wines with very well-balanced alcohol and acidity Chile has long been known for Cabernet but you will see increased selections of Pinot Noir and Syrah.  The cool waters of the Pacific create good growing conditions for more delicate grapes used to make Pinot Noir. Pinot Noir from Chile generally is not in enough abundance to make this newsletter that focuses [...]

17 03, 2017

Chardonnay

By | 2017-03-17T10:16:28+00:00 March 17th, 2017|wine|0 Comments

Are you having trouble finding a good California Chardonnay at a reasonable price on your retailers’ shelves?  Join the crowd. We turned to Chardonnay from Washington State but those appear to be in dwindling numbers as well.  The drought in California had a negative impact on the 2014 and 2015 harvest.  Both were very small down 50 to 90% per WineSpectator in some locations. The 2016s are not on the shelves but coming soon.  The rains in 2016 improved the harvest both in terms of volume and quality.  These wines will start to show up in a few months. “The 2016 California winegrape harvest was early, with a mostly normal yield of exceptional quality fruit throughout the state. A relatively even growing season followed welcome winter rains that helped to alleviate the drought. “It’s been a [...]

6 03, 2017

FinTech

By | 2017-03-06T13:04:18+00:00 March 6th, 2017|business advisory|0 Comments

“lenders on the panel do not wait until month end for the AR aging, and none would lend to a company unable to provide aged AR almost instantaneously” As we look to how technology continues to change the world around us and how we conduct business, Fintech represents a new era of real time analytics and 24x7 exception reporting. I recently attended a panel discussion on current uses of Fintech in commercial lending and was struck by the differences in use between the application of Fintech in the North versus the South. With east coast offices in the North and the South it continues to amaze me at the divergence in these markets.  In the Northeast, factors are scarce and second tier lenders are in the minority versus the South that has [...]

26 01, 2017

Best of 2016

By | 2017-03-06T12:04:49+00:00 January 26th, 2017|wine|0 Comments

WineSpectator reviewed thousands of wines in 2016.  Their list of the top 100 is always fun but usually the wines are hard if not impossible to find.  In this blog we will look at the best of 2016.  What is meant by best is not the best wine at all costs and not wines that are hard to find. This list consists of really good wine at under $20 that are easy to locate and enjoy.  Many of these wines are what we are consuming in the Lucarelli household.  Good stuff cheap as they say.  You will find some of these wines at Costco or Total Wine. The country / location of origin is an important element to remember for wines in this price range as it usually indicates a strong growing season [...]

2 12, 2016

Economic impact of Trump Administration

By | 2017-03-06T12:04:49+00:00 December 2nd, 2016|business advisory|0 Comments

Many of us are planning for 2017 and the election results are certainly going to impact strategies for years to come.  At this point it might be best to plan what if scenarios as the Trump administration is selected, confirmed, and starts to execute their strategy.  In reality we are seeing a massive change in global policies which started with the Brit exit, USA elections, upcoming elections and change in France, Italy and in Germany.  At this point for better or worse it is safe to say that “globalization” as defined under President Obama is dead.  We are going to see a relatively rapid change in direction.  Like an aircraft carrier traveling at full speed that makes a 90 degree turn it is going to create some waves.  This blog will take a look at what some [...]

8 11, 2016

2013 Cabernet

By | 2017-03-06T12:04:49+00:00 November 8th, 2016|wine|0 Comments

2013 California Cabernet vintage followed the outstanding 2012 vintage with yet another strong performance.  WineSpectator rated wines from Napa 96 points and 91 points from Sonoma.  Robert Parker gave the 2013 vintage a 98 rating – rarefied air for sure. The 2014 vintage did not come out as well and was rated 91 points by  Robert Parker.  You will find both vintages on the shelves as I write this blog.  I would lean toward the 2013 vintage other things being equal. Cabs for the cellar Lewis Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley Rated 95 points @$90 Remarkably elegant and refined for a wine of this size and depth, with tiers of plum, blackberry and currant flavors, as well as subtle touches of black licorice that remain pure and graceful on the long, lingering aftertaste. Drink now through 2028. [...]

21 10, 2016

New Zealand 2015 vintage

By | 2017-03-06T12:04:49+00:00 October 21st, 2016|wine|0 Comments

Wines from down under are on a hot streak in the US.  I for one tend to order a crisp New Zealand Sauvignon blanc from New Zealand when out with friends before dinner.  You will also find a growing number of Pinot Noirs from New Zealand.  The production of Sauvignon Blanc is ten times that of Pinot but that is slowly changing.  Good news for those of us that like Pinot.  The Sauvignon Blanc’s most often associated with New Zealand will have intense acidity and citrus notes with tropical fruit overtones.  These are generally the wines produced by large corporate producers.  You will find the single vineyard usually at a higher price point that will be more complex, softer and a longer finish.  In general Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand is not meant for the cellar and [...]

23 05, 2016

Update – Chilean wines

By | 2017-03-06T12:04:49+00:00 May 23rd, 2016|wine|0 Comments

  Chilean Update Over the years we have enjoyed some lovely Cabernets from Chile primarily in the under $20 range.  For cellaring purposes they offer some interesting options but I tend to look for good years that will improve with age with a focus of under $20. Chile continues to make capital expenditures in the vineyards and the cellar.  These investments are starting to pay dividends.   Chile’s growing conditions are similar to those of the Mediterranean of cool wet winters with summers on the dry side. That said they have different a climate structure for rain and temperature. Harvest time is party time A leading expert on the terroir in Chile is Dr. Parra who holds numerous degrees in soil studies. Mr. Parra states that Chile’s diverse terroirs alien nicely with the finest wine growing [...]

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